Six months after the United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran, American families are paying a steep and largely hidden price. A new study finds that US households have spent an extra $100 billion on petrol and diesel since the war began on February 28. That works out to about $763 per household, according to a tracker run by Brown University’s Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs.
The numbers lay bare how a conflict fought far from American shores is reshaping daily life at home. They also add to the political pressure on President Donald Trump, who has struggled to convince voters that the war is necessary even as fuel prices climb.
A sharp rise at the pump
Petrol makes up the bulk of the added cost, simply because Americans use far more of it than diesel. Since late February, the national average price of petrol has jumped 39 percent, from roughly $2.98 a gallon to $4.15. Diesel has risen even more sharply, up more than 60 percent from $3.67 to $5.90 a gallon.
For many drivers, the difference is hard to miss. A family that once filled a mid-size SUV for around $60 now spends closer to $85 or more, depending on where they live. Trucking firms, delivery services and small businesses that rely on diesel are facing even steeper increases, costs that eventually filter through to the prices of goods and services.
When the war began, President Trump told reporters it would last four to five weeks. Six months on, with no diplomatic breakthrough in sight, fuel prices remain elevated and show little sign of returning to pre-war levels.
Where the pain is worst
Fuel prices vary widely by state, and the burden of the war is not being shared equally. Costs are highest on the West Coast, where high fuel taxes and carbon pricing programmes were already pushing prices up before the conflict began.
California has the nation’s highest average petrol price at $5.85 a gallon, followed by Washington ($5.51), Hawaii ($5.39), Alaska ($5.03) and Oregon ($5.01). In those states, many households are likely spending well above the national average of $763 in extra fuel costs over the past six months.
At the other end of the scale, Indiana has the country’s lowest average petrol price at $3.43 a gallon, with several Midwestern and Southern states also reporting relatively lower prices. Even so, those areas have still seen significant increases since February.
The geographic divide matters politically. States with higher fuel costs tend to be more sensitive to price spikes, and voters in those regions are more likely to blame the White House when prices rise. Polling cited in the report shows that a majority of Americans now hold President Trump responsible for the increase in fuel prices, despite his repeated claims that oil companies are engaging in “price gouging”.
From the pump to the pantry
Higher fuel costs do not stop at the gas station. Oil and gas touch nearly every stage of the food chain, from fertiliser and tractor fuel on farms to refrigeration and insulation in cold storage, to plastic packaging and truck fuel for transport.
As oil prices rise, these added costs accumulate at each step: production, storage, packaging and delivery. By the time food reaches supermarket shelves, those additional expenses are passed on to consumers as higher prices.
For households already stretched by rising rents, healthcare costs and interest rates, the combined effect of more expensive fuel and food can be significant. Lower-income families, which spend a larger share of their income on basics like transport and groceries, feel the pinch most acutely.
The report warns that in lower-income countries, where populations spend a far greater share of their earnings on food and import large quantities of grain and fertiliser, rising oil prices could rapidly translate into food shortages. While the US is better insulated than many economies, the trend is still visible in grocery bills and restaurant menus.
Political fallout
The war on Iran has been unpopular in the United States, and fuel prices have become one of the most tangible measures of its cost. President Trump has tried to deflect blame, accusing oil companies of exploiting the situation to raise prices. In an interview with Reuters, he dismissed concerns about rising fuel costs, saying: “If they rise, they rise.”
That stance has done little to reassure voters. Critics argue that the administration underestimated both the duration of the conflict and its economic impact. The original expectation of a short, limited war has given way to a protracted confrontation with no clear end in sight.
Opponents in Congress have begun to cite the $100 billion figure in speeches and hearings, framing it as a hidden tax on American families. Some are calling for a more aggressive diplomatic push to end the fighting, while others are demanding investigations into whether energy companies have used the war as cover to raise prices beyond what market conditions justify.
What comes next
For now, there is no sign that fuel prices will fall sharply unless the conflict eases or global oil supplies increase substantially. Analysts warn that as long as tensions remain high in the Middle East, markets will price in a risk premium that keeps crude and refined products expensive.
The Brown University tracker is likely to continue updating its estimates as the war drags on. If current price levels persist, the total additional cost to US consumers could climb well beyond $100 billion by the end of the year.
For millions of households, the war’s price tag is no longer an abstract figure in a news report. It is measured in extra dollars at the pump, higher grocery bills and the quiet recalculations families make every time they plan a trip, fill a tank or open a monthly budget.